Premier League best bets: Expert picks for final day of the Premier League season

Arsenal vs. Everton

Sunday, May 19, 11 a.m. ET, USA Network

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These last few matches Arsenal have tended to play a little more passively out of possession and when they get the lead, they try to control matches with their defense. They knew against Manchester United that the only way that the Red Devils could hurt them was in transition, so they didn’t even give them the chance.

That exact same principle applies to this Everton match. If Arsenal get a lead, goal difference in the title race no longer matters, so they can sit on the lead and dare Everton to break them down, which I don’t think is something Everton are capable of doing.

Everton aren’t going to utilize any short passes. They are going to send the ball long up to the forwards and try to win second balls and that usually works against most teams because Everton are more physical than most teams in the Premier League, but not against Arsenal. Since the middle of the season, Arsenal are winning over 60% of second balls and are allowing the second-lowest long pass completion rate in the Premier League.

These are also two teams that primarily rely on set pieces to create a majority of their chances, but both Arsenal and Everton are two of the best set piece defenses in the Premier League.

Arsenal have had issues breaking down good defensive mid-blocks and Everton, despite what the results tell you, have a really good one. They have conceded the second-fewest big scoring chances behind only Arsenal and have only conceded 5.3 expected goals over their last five matches.

I have 2.71 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under 3.5

Pick: Under 3.5 (-109 via bet365)

Burnley vs. Nottingham Forest

Sunday, May 19, 11 a.m. ET, Peacock

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Burnley have made changes to their defensive structure, but in a match like this where they have nothing to lose because they’ve already been relegated, I think you will see Vincent Komany switch them back to a 4-2-3-1 and try to play their build out of the back, possession-dominant style that we saw in the Championship last season. He switched them to that formation recently against Newcastle and it did not go well. Newcastle scored goals off of a high turnover and one from when they were playing a mid-block and transitioned from deep, which are both things that Nottingham Forest thrive with.

Even though Forest tend to play more passively, they will press high if they believe they can be successful with it. Most recently, they had 21 high recoveries against Wolves, 11 against Everton and last weekend had 15 against Chelsea, so they are capable of pressing Burnley high and causing problems.

Nottingham Forest are also one the most dangerous transition teams in the Premier League with the combination of pace and ball carrying they have. They are averaging 2.93 counterattacks with a shot per 90 minutes in 2024, which is the highest mark in the Premier League, while Burnley are allowing 2.4, which is third-highest.

Burnley’s offense continues to be near the bottom in terms of creating chances. Since the beginning of February, they have created 19.7 expected goals in 15 matches, which is the lowest mark in the league outside of Brighton. So, how are they going to score against a Nottingham Forest side that has conceded the third fewest expected goals over that time frame?

The only weakness in this Nottingham Forest side is goalkeeping and set pieces. By a pretty wide margin, they have conceded the most expected goals off of set pieces, but Burnley are dead last in the Premier League in xG per set piece.

I have Nottingham Forest projected at +121, so I like the value on them at +135

Pick: Nottingham Forest ML (+135 via DraftKings)

Man City vs. West Ham  

Sunday, May 19, 11 a.m. ET, NBC

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I am not going to sit here and tell you that West Ham’s defense is going to be able to stop Manchester City’s offense because they can’t but what I will say is that Manchester City was pretty poor offensively against Tottenham on Tuesday, failing to create over one non-penalty expected goal and only taking four shots (including a penalty) in the second half.

West Ham have had issues in possession this season when they’ve tried to be something they are not, which is a team that builds out of the back. When they decide to concede almost all of the possession and stick to their defensive block, the results aren’t terrible. There have been 14 matches where West Ham have held under 35% possession. In those 14 matches, they are 6-3-5 and have won the expected goals battle in seven of those matches.

You have to think about the scenario that Manchester City are in right now as well. The goal difference no longer matters, so they just need to win. I have a really hard time believing that Pep Guardiola is not going to instruct his to sit on the lead once they get up two goals.

Manchester City have been in this scenario four times where it’s come down to the final day and they very famously needed two stoppage time goals to beat QPR in 2012. In 2014 they beat West Ham 2-0 on the final day to win the title over Liverpool, in 2019 they beat Brighton 4-1 on the final day to win the title over Liverpool again and then in 2022 needed to come back from 2-0 down against Aston Villa to win the title once again over Liverpool. So, my point is that it’s usually not very likely that they will run up the score in a must win match.

I have Manchester City’s spread projected at -2.21, so I like the value on West Ham +3 at -143.

Pick: West Ham +3 (-133 via bet365)

Chelsea vs. Bournemouth 

Sunday, May 19, 11 a.m. ET, Golf Channel

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Things have been improving for Chelsea over the past few matches with their build up structure. They’ve began inverting Marc Cucarella into the middle of the pitch and going with a 3-2-5 with Palmer and Gallagher dropping into the half spaces, which has allowed their build up to be a lot more connected than the 3-1-6 they were utilizing in the beginning of the season.

With that being said, this stretch of good results has largely come against teams that either play passively or aren’t great at pressing, so putting up big numbers against teams like Brighton, West Ham, Nottingham Forest or Aston Villa is fine, but doing it against teams like Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester City is another thing.

Against those three opponents, Chelsea allowed 61 high recoveries (allowed the opponent to gain possession in the final third), which shows how far they have to go in terms of being a good build up team. Forcing high turnovers and winning the ball in the opponent's final third is what Bournemouth do best. Since the calendar turned to 2024, Bournemouth have a 8.8 PPDA, which is the third-best mark in the league behind only Liverpool and Tottenham. They also can exploit Chelsea where they are weakest defending in transition.

For the season, Chelsea are 18th in the final third to box entry conversion rate allowed and allowed numerous chances in transition against Nottingham Forest over the weekend. Box defending has been a bit of an issue for Chelsea as well, especially defending crosses because they are allowing one of the highest cross completion rates in the Premier League.

I only have Chelsea projected at -133, so I like the value on Bournemouth +1.5 at -129.

Pick:Bournemouth +1.5 (-129 via bet365)